Volume 13, Issue 5 (May 2026), Pages: 246-254

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 Original Research Paper

Predicting medication shortages: An analysis of supply-side constraints and procurement vulnerability

 Author(s): 

Ahmad Mohammad Albogami *, Talaat El-Demerdash Ibrahim Shehata

 Affiliation(s):

Department of Health Services and Hospitals Administration, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

 Full text

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 * Corresponding Author. 

   Corresponding author's ORCID profile:  https://orcid.org/0009-0002-0274-3476

 Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

 
https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2026.05.023

 Abstract

Medication shortages remain a major challenge for hospital systems, negatively affecting patient care and operational efficiency. Previous studies have identified economic and manufacturing factors as important causes of medication shortages; however, limited empirical research has explored how these supply-side pressures lead to shortages at the hospital level. To address this gap, this study develops and tests a simple structural model that explains the relationship between supply-side constraints, procurement vulnerability, and medication shortages. Data were collected from hospital procurement and pharmacy professionals and analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The findings show that supply-side constraints significantly increase procurement vulnerability, which subsequently intensifies medication shortages. The results also reveal that supply-side constraints have a direct effect on medication shortages, indicating a partial mediation effect. This study contributes to the healthcare supply chain literature by explaining how economic and manufacturing pressures in the supply chain lead to medication shortages in hospitals. From a managerial perspective, the findings emphasize the importance of improving procurement resilience to reduce the risk of medication shortages.

 © 2026 The Authors. Published by IASE.

 This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

 Keywords

Medication shortages, Supply-side constraints, Procurement vulnerability, Hospital supply chains, Procurement resilience

 Article history

Received 30 December 2025, Received in revised form 7 May 2026, Accepted 25 May 2026

 Acknowledgment

No Acknowledgment. 

 Compliance with ethical standards

 Ethical considerations

The study involved voluntary survey responses from adult professionals and did not collect sensitive personal or medical data. Participation was anonymous, and informed consent was obtained from all respondents prior to participation. Data were treated confidentially and used exclusively for research purposes. 

 Citation:

Albogami AM and Shehata TEI (2026). Predicting medication shortages: An analysis of supply-side constraints and procurement vulnerability. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 13(5): 246-254

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