Volume 13, Issue 5 (May 2026), Pages: 225-234

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 Original Research Paper

Energy investment, geopolitical risk, and energy security in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from a dynamic ARDL framework

 Author(s): 

Rida Waheed *

 Affiliation(s):

Department of Finance and Economics, College of Business, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

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 * Corresponding Author. 

   Corresponding author's ORCID profile:  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9877-0833

 Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

 
https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2026.05.021

 Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationships among energy investment, geopolitical risk, and energy security in Saudi Arabia using quarterly data from 2000 to 2024. The study applies the Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine both short-run and long-run relationships while considering mixed integration orders and structural breaks. Energy security is measured by net energy imports, whereas energy investment reflects capital allocation to infrastructure development, renewable energy projects, and energy diversification. Geopolitical risk is represented by the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index. The findings show that energy investment significantly improves energy security in both the short and long run, highlighting the importance of infrastructure development under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 strategy. In contrast, geopolitical risk negatively affects energy security. However, the interaction between geopolitical risk and energy investment has a positive moderating effect, indicating that higher levels of investment increase resilience to external shocks. Furthermore, economic growth, trade openness, and natural resource rents positively contribute to energy security, while population growth reduces energy security by increasing domestic energy demand.

 © 2026 The Authors. Published by IASE.

 This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

 Keywords

Energy investment, Energy security, Geopolitical risk, Saudi Arabia, Dynamic ARDL model

 Article history

Received 15 January 2026, Received in revised form 14 May 2026, Accepted 23 May 2026

 Acknowledgment

No Acknowledgment. 

 Compliance with ethical standards

 Citation:

Waheed R (2026). Energy investment, geopolitical risk, and energy security in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from a dynamic ARDL framework. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 13(5): 225-234

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