International Journal of

ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES

EISSN: 2313-3724, Print ISSN: 2313-626X

Frequency: 12

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 Volume 13, Issue 5 (May 2026), Pages: 25-34

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 Original Research Paper

Modeling interregional migration and spatial attractiveness: A gravity-based panel approach

 Author(s): 

Tegshjargal Sodnomdavaa 1, Tsolmon Sodnomdavaa 2, *, Battuvshin Gurbazar 1, Gantumur Munkhzul 1

 Affiliation(s):

1School of Management, Mongolian University of Science and Technology, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
2Economic and Business Department, Mandakh University, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

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 * Corresponding Author. 

   Corresponding author's ORCID profile:  https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5371-9559

 Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

 
https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2026.05.003

 Abstract

This study uses an augmented gravity model to examine interprovincial migration in Mongolia, based on a strongly balanced panel dataset of 21 provinces from 2000 to 2024 using official data. The model includes economic, spatial, social, and environmental variables and applies Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) to address heteroskedasticity and correlated errors. The results show that provinces with higher GDP per capita, higher wages, and better healthcare access attract more migrants, while greater distance from the capital and limited employment opportunities reduce migration. Residual analysis reveals clear spatial differences across provinces. For example, Khentii receives more migrants than predicted, suggesting the influence of unobserved factors such as social capital and perceived safety. In contrast, Sukhbaatar shows negative effects, likely due to weak infrastructure and limited access to services. A comparison of eastern provinces (Khentii, Dornod, and Sukhbaatar) indicates high development potential but continued out-migration, highlighting a mismatch between economic capacity and migration outcomes. The study suggests that migration policies should consider quality of life, environmental conditions, and social infrastructure, and highlights the need for region-specific strategies. However, the analysis is limited by the use of aggregate data, and future research should include micro-level approaches to better understand migration decisions.

 © 2026 The Authors. Published by IASE.

 This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

 Keywords

Interprovincial migration, Gravity model, Regional disparities, Labor mobility, Mongolia

 Article history

Received 21 December 2025, Received in revised form 27 April 2026, Accepted 2 May 2026

 Acknowledgment

No Acknowledgment. 

 Compliance with ethical standards

 Conflict of interest: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

 Citation:

Sodnomdavaa T, Sodnomdavaa T, Gurbazar B, and Munkhzul G (2026). Modeling interregional migration and spatial attractiveness: A gravity-based panel approach. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 13(5): 25-34

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