Volume 13, Issue 4 (April 2026), Pages: 130-137

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 Original Research Paper

An intelligent information framework for estimating the causal impact of financial incentives on electric vehicle adoption

 Author(s): 

Boumedyen Shannaq *

 Affiliation(s):

Management Information System Department, College of Business, University of Buraimi, Al Buraimi, Oman

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 * Corresponding Author. 

   Corresponding author's ORCID profile:  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5867-3986

 Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

 
https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2026.04.013

 Abstract

Efficient financial incentives play an important role in accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). This study applies causal machine learning, specifically Double Machine Learning (DML) combined with a Gradient Boosting model, to estimate the true causal effect of discounts on EV sales. The proposed model significantly improves predictive performance, achieving an R² value of 0.941, which represents a substantial improvement over baseline methods. The causal analysis indicates that a 1% increase in discounts leads to a statistically significant rise in sales; however, this effect varies across different customer groups and geographic regions. In addition, SHAP analysis is employed to provide interpretable insights into the key factors influencing EV adoption. Overall, the study presents a robust framework that integrates predictive modeling with causal inference and offers practical guidance for policymakers and manufacturers to design targeted and effective incentive strategies for promoting EV adoption.

 © 2026 The Authors. Published by IASE.

 This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

 Keywords

Electric vehicle adoption, Financial incentives, Causal machine learning, Gradient boosting, SHAP analysis

 Article history

Received 30 November 2025, Received in revised form 5 April 2026, Accepted 10 April 2026

 Acknowledgment

The author gratefully acknowledges the support and funding provided by the University of Buraimi. 

 Compliance with ethical standards

 Citation:

Shannaq B (2026). An intelligent information framework for estimating the causal impact of financial incentives on electric vehicle adoption. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 13(4): 130-137

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