Effects of wheat yield and area under wheat crop on agricultural GDP in Pakistan: An econometric analysis

Rehman, et al.

International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences

Int. j. adv. appl. sci.

EISSN: 2313-3724

Print ISSN: 2313-626X

Volume 4, Issue 6 (June 2017), Pages: 137-141

Title: Effects of wheat yield and area under wheat crop on agricultural GDP in Pakistan: An econometric analysis

Author(s): Abdul Rehman ^1,*, Luan Jingdong ¹, Asif Kabir ², Imran Hussain ³

Affiliation(s):

¹College of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei, China
²School of Communication Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China
³Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan

https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2017.06.019

Full Text - PDF XML

Abstract:

This study investigates and explores the relationship between wheat crop yield, area under wheat crop, and agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) in Pakistan. Times series data from 1970–2015 were used in this study. The Phillips-Perron unit root test was used to check the stationarity of the data. The Johansen cointegration test was performed to evaluate the long-term relationships between the dependent and independent variables. An econometric ordinary least square method was applied to estimate the relationship between wheat crop yield, area under wheat crop, and agricultural GDP. The results of the Johansen cointegration test revealed a long-term relationship between the variables. The regression results indicate that wheat crop yield has a positive and significant relationship with agricultural GDP, while the area under wheat crop has a negative relationship with agricultural GDP.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Keywords: Wheat yield, Agricultural GDP, Crop production, OLS method, Irrigation

Article History: Received 25 March 2017, Received in revised form 2 May 2017, Accepted 18 May 2017

Digital Object Identifier:

https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2017.06.019

Citation:

Rehman A, Jingdong L, Kabir A, and Hussain I (2017). Effects of wheat yield and area under wheat crop on agricultural GDP in Pakistan: An econometric analysis. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 4(6): 137-141

http://www.science-gate.com/IJAAS/V4I6/Rehman.html

References:

Anyanwu JC (2010). Poverty in Nigeria: A gendered analysis. The African Statistical Journal, 11: 38-61.

Concepcion RN, Contreras SM, Sanidad WB, Gesite AB, Nilo GP, Salandanan KA, and de Vera SV (2006). Enhancing multi-functionality of agriculture through rainwater harvesting system. Paddy and Water Environment, 4(4): 235-243. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-006-0057-3

De Fraiture C, Molden D, and Wichelns D (2010). Investing in water for food, ecosystems, and livelihoods: An overview of the comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture. Agricultural Water Management, 97(4): 495-501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2009.08.015

English M and Raja SN (1996). Perspectives on deficit irrigation. Agricultural Water Management, 32(1): 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3774(96)01255-3

Falkenmark M, Fox P, Persson G, and Rockstorm J (2001). Water harvesting for upgrading of rainfed agriculture: Problems analysis and research needs. SIWI Report II, Stockholm International Water Institute, Stockholm, Sweden. Available online at: http://dlc.dlib.indiana.edu/dlc/handle/10535/5297

FAO (2001). Speciality Rices of the World: Breeding, production and marketing. Food and Agriculture Organization, ROME, Italy.

FAO (2009). World summit on food security. Food and Agriculture Organization, ROME, Italy.

GOP (2008). Economic survey of Pakistan. Economic Advisory Wing Finance Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. Available online at: http://www.finance.gov.pk/ survey_1009.html

GOP (2012). Pakistan Economic Survey 2010–11. Economic Advisory Wing Finance Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. Available online at: http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey_1011.html

Huang Q, Rozelle SD, Huang J, Wang J (2002). Irrigation and yields in China's agriculture. University of California, Davis, USA.

Hussain I, Khan MA, and Khan EA (2006). Bread wheat varieties as influenced by different nitrogen levels. Journal of Zhejiang University Science B, 7(1): 70-78. https://doi.org/10.1631/jzus.2006.B0070 PMid:16365929 PMCid:PMC1361763

Jin M, Zhang R, Sun L, and Gao Y (1999). Temporal and spatial soil water management: A case study in the Heilonggang region, PR China. Agricultural Water Management, 42(2): 173-187. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3774(99)00039-6

Johansen S and Juselius K (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2): 169-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x

Kang S, Zhang L, Liang Y, Hu X, Cai H, and Gu B (2002). Effects of limited irrigation on yield and water use efficiency of winter wheat in the Loess Plateau of China. Agricultural Water Management, 55(3): 203-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3774(01)00180-9

Khan S, Tariq R, Yuanlai C, and Blackwell J (2006). Can irrigation be sustainable?. Agricultural Water Management, 80(1): 87-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2005.07.006

Olesen JE, Mortensen JV, Jørgensen LN, and Andersen MN (2000). Irrigation strategy, nitrogen application and fungicide control in winter wheat on a sandy soil. I. Yield, yield components and nitrogen uptake. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 134(01): 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859699007352

Oweis T (1997). Supplemental irrigation: A highly efficient water-use practice. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Aleppo, Syria.

Oweis T and Hachum A (2003). Improving water productivity in the dry areas of West Asia and North Africa. In: Kijne JW, Barker R, and Molden DJ (Eds.), Water Productivity in Agriculture: Limits and Opportunities for Improvement: 179-197. CABI Publishing, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK. https://doi.org/10.1079/9780851996691.0179

Oweis T and Hachum A (2006). Water harvesting and supplemental irrigation for improved water productivity of dry farming systems in West Asia and North Africa. Agricultural Water Management, 80(1): 57-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2005.07.004

Phillips PC and Perron P (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75: 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335

Qiang Z, Yuanhong L, and Manjin C (2006). Effect of low rate irrigation with rainwater harvesting system on the dry farming. In the 2nd International RWHM Workshop, Beijing, China.

Ramotra KC and Giakwad VP (2012). Surface rain harvesting potentiality and impact of Dhaval micro-watershed in Satara district, Maharashtra, India. Journal of Environmental Earth Sciences, 2(11): 28-38.

Rehman A, Chandio AA, Jingdong L, and Hussain I (2016b). Economic perspectives of maize crop in Pakistan: A time series analysis (1970-2015) (Part 3). International Journal of Advanced Biotechnology and Research, 7(3): 968-974.

Rehman A, Chandio AA, Jingdong L, Hussain I, Wagan SA, and Memon QUA (2016a). Economic perspectives of cotton crop in Pakistan: A time series analysis (1970–2015) (Part1). Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2016.12.005

Rehman A, Jingdong L, Shahzad B, Chandio AA, Hussain I, Nabi G, and Iqbal MS (2015). Economic perspectives of major field crops of Pakistan: An empirical study. Pacific Science Review B: Humanities and Social Sciences, 1(3): 145-158.

Shaumarov M and Birner R (2013). Dryland pastoral systems in transition: What are the options for institutional change in Uzbekistan?. In the 53rd Annual Conference of the German Society of Economic and Social Sciences in Agriculture (GEWISOLA), Berlin, Germany: 25-27. Available online at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/gewi13/156133.html

Shideed KH (2011). Informing policy development for sustainable and productive food production systems in dry areas. In the 5th Congress on Conservation Agriculture and 3rd Farming System Design Conference. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, Aleppo, Syria. Available online at: http://aciar.gov.au/files/node/13987/keynote_theme_3_shideed_88427.pdf

Short R and Lantzke N (2006). Increasing runoff from roaded catchments by chemical application. Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia, Australia: 20-24. http://research.wineaustralia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/RT-03-20-4.pdf

Singh PK, Mishra AK, and Imtiyaz M (1991). Moisture stress and the water use efficiency of mustard. Agricultural Water Management, 20(3): 245-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3774(91)90021-A

Tavakkoli AR and Oweis TY (2004). The role of supplemental irrigation and nitrogen in producing bread wheat in the highlands of Iran. Agricultural Water Management, 65(3): 225-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2003.09.001

Valipour M (2013). Increasing irrigation efficiency by management strategies: cutback and surge irrigation. ARPN Journal of Agricultural and Biological Science, 8(1): 35-43.

Xie ZK, Wang YJ, and Li FM (2005). Effect of plastic mulching on soil water use and spring wheat yield in arid region of northwest China. Agricultural Water Management, 75(1): 71-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2004.12.014

Zakaria S, Al-Ansari N, and Knutsson S (2013). Wheat yield scenarios for rainwater harvesting at Northern Sinjar Mountain, Iraq. Natural Science, 5(10): 1057-1068. https://doi.org/10.4236/ns.2013.510130

Zakaria S, AL-Ansari NA, Knutsson S, and EZZ-Al-deen M (2012). Rain water harvesting at Eastern Sinjar Mountain. Geoscience Research, 3(2): 100-108.