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EISSN: 2313-3724, Print ISSN:2313-626X

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Volume 4, Issue 11 (November 2017), Pages: 43-48


Original Research Paper

Title: The analysis of Pedroni Co-integration and VECM on export performance and exchange rate fluctuation

Author(s): Suraya Mahmood 1, Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau 1, *, Abdullahi Masud 2


1Faculty of Economy and Management sciences, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (UniSZa), Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
2Department of Business Administration, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University lapai, Niger State, Nigeria

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The study investigates the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and Nigerian export performance between 1980– 2015 using Pedroni Co-integration Approach and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).The found long run relationship between exchange rate and Nigerian export performance and also export rate greatly affects balance of trade and with the speed of adjustment toward long run equilibrium is -0.384858 which is significant at 0.01%. This indicates long run causality between exchange rate and export in Nigeria. Based on the findings, the study suggests that Nigeria should depreciate naira as a reduction in the exchange rate will reduce export prices, and, assuming demand is elastic, export revenue will increase. 

© 2017 The Authors. Published by IASE.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (

Keywords: Real exchange rates, Export, Interest rate, Money demand, Economic growth, Inflation

Article History: Received 8 July 2017, Received in revised form 13 September 2017, Accepted 20 September 2017

Digital Object Identifier:


Mahmood S, Musibau HO, and Masud A (2017). The analysis of Pedroni Co-integration and VECM on export performance and exchange rate fluctuation. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 4(11): 43-48

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