International Journal of

ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES

EISSN: 2313-3724, Print ISSN: 2313-626X

Frequency: 12
line decor
  
line decor

 Volume 10, Issue 3 (March 2023), Pages: 14-25

----------------------------------------------

 Original Research Paper

 Population and economic development: A counterintuitive relationship for a sustainable world

 Author(s): 

 Othmane Benmoussa *

 Affiliation(s):

 Euromed Polytechnic School, Euromed Research Center, Euromed University of Fès, Fès, Morocco

  Full Text - PDF          XML

 * Corresponding Author. 

  Corresponding author's ORCID profile: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7864-6886

 Digital Object Identifier: 

 https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2023.03.003

 Abstract:

The world population continues to grow, generating a rapid consumption of the earth’s resources that do not have enough time to regenerate. On one side, some economists warn about restricting the population increase that penalizes countries favoring birth control. Conversely, the widespread way of thinking pushing toward galloping demography can be uneconomic. Is the straight correlation between solid demographics and high economic growth correct in a complex and highly nonlinear system? Is the assumption behind the quasi-postulate indicating infinite growth true? This paper attempts to explain the divergent viewpoints regarding the impact of population size on economic development by offering a holistic model instead of a linear cause-and-effect analysis and its variations we find in the majority of works on the subject that neglect the higher-order interactions between various factors, generating approximate, even biased answers due to a legitimate desire to simplify complex phenomena. A systemic model integrating population growth, technology, and economy in a fully endogenous way and in a finite world is proposed, simultaneously highlighting sustainability's role through two main variables, namely “Population” and “Carrying Capacity” of earth. The model tries to find the right balance between those, alarmists, who advocate a soon uncontrolled situation, and others, easygoing, and warn against any drastic form of growth limitation susceptible to plunging billions of people into poverty. It contributes to establishing the conditions for preserving the environment while stimulating the economy in a sustainable manner, with population evolution in the foreground.

 © 2022 The Authors. Published by IASE.

 This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

 Keywords: Demography, Growth, Economy, System dynamics, Sustainability

 Article History: Received 8 August 2022, Received in revised form 9 November 2022, Accepted 22 November 2022

 Acknowledgment 

No Acknowledgment.

 Compliance with ethical standards

 Conflict of interest: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

 Citation:

 Benmoussa O (2023). Population and economic development: A counterintuitive relationship for a sustainable world. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 10(3): 14-25

 Permanent Link to this page

 Figures

 Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 6 Fig. 7 Fig. 8a Fig. 8b Fig. 8c

 Tables

 No Table

----------------------------------------------    

 References (35)

  1. Ayadi R and Sessa C (2020). Blue transition policy roadmap: Towards transparent, responsible, inclusive and sustainable (TRIS) development in the Mediterranean. Euro Mediterranean Network for Economic Studies (EMNES), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.  
  2. Bairoliya N and Miller R (2021). Demographic transition, human capital and economic growth in China. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 127: 104117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104117   [Google Scholar] PMid:33935339 PMCid:PMC8087254
  3. Benmoussa O (2020). A conceptual framework for transitioning to an authentic sustainable world. EMNES Working Papers No 45, Euro Mediterranean Network for Economic Studies (EMNES), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.   [Google Scholar]
  4. Charbit Y (2022). Classical foundations of past and present population policies. In: May JF and Goldstone JA (Eds.), International handbook of population policies: 41-58. Springer, Cham, Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-02040-7_3   [Google Scholar]
  5. Chaurasia AR (2021). Economic growth and population transition in China and India 1990–2018. China Population and Development Studies, 4(3): 229-261. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42379-020-00067-1   [Google Scholar]
  6. Crombach L and Smits J (2022). The demographic window of opportunity and economic growth at sub-national level in 91 developing countries. Social Indicators Research, 161(1): 171-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02802-8   [Google Scholar]
  7. Foley DK (2000). Stabilization of human population through economic increasing returns. Economics Letters, 68(3): 309-317. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(00)00257-3   [Google Scholar]
  8. Forrester JW (1971). World dynamics. Pegasus Communications, Waltham, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  9. Hardin G (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science, 162(3859): 1243-1248. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.162.3859.1243   [Google Scholar]
  10. Heintz J and Folbre N (2022). Endogenous growth, population dynamics, and economic structure: Long-run macroeconomics when demography matters. Feminist Economics, 28(3): 145-163. https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2021.1937266   [Google Scholar]
  11. Huang W (2017). How does the one child policy impact social and economic outcomes? IZA World of Labor, Bonn, Germany. https://doi.org/10.15185/izawol.387   [Google Scholar]
  12. Jafrin N, Mahi M, Masud MM, and Ghosh D (2021). Demographic dividend and economic growth in emerging economies: Fresh evidence from the SAARC countries. International Journal of Social Economics, 48(8): 1159-1174. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-08-2020-0588   [Google Scholar]
  13. Johnston LA (2021). “Getting old before getting rich” and Africa: Of what relevance is China's economic demography transition? Journal of African Development, 22(2): 249-278. https://doi.org/10.5325/jafrideve.22.2.0249   [Google Scholar]
  14. Keyfitz N and Caswell H (2005). Applied mathematical demography. Volume 47, Springer, New York, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  15. Kreager P (2015). Population theory: A long view. Population Studies, 69(sup1): S29-S37. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2014.981095   [Google Scholar] PMid:25912915
  16. Kreager P (2017). Adam smith, the division of labor, and the renewal of population heterogeneity. Population and Development Review, 43(3): 513-539. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12085   [Google Scholar]
  17. Kreager P (2022). Smith or Malthus? A sea‐change in the concept of a population. Population and Development Review, 48(3): 645-688. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12488   [Google Scholar]
  18. Leal Filho W, Shiel C, Paço A, Mifsud M, Ávila LV, Brandli LL, Molthan-Hill P, Pace P, Azeiteiro UM, Vargas VR, and Caeiro S (2019). Sustainable development goals and sustainability teaching at universities: Falling behind or getting ahead of the pack? Journal of Cleaner Production, 232: 285-294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.309   [Google Scholar]
  19. Meadows D, Meadows D, and Randers J (1992). Beyond the limits: confronting global collapse, envisioning a sustainable future. Chelsea Green Publishing, Vermont, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  20. Meadows D, Meadows D, Randers J, and Behrens WW (1972). The limits to growth. Universe Book, New York, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  21. Meadows D, Richardson J, and Bruckmann G (1982). Groping in the dark: The first decade of global modelling. John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  22. Meadows DH, Randers J, and Meadows DL (2004). Limits to growth: The 30-year update. Earthscan, London, UK.   [Google Scholar]
  23. Meadows DL, Behrens WW, Meadows DH, Naill RF, Randers J, and Zahn EKO (1974). Dynamics of growth in a finite world. Wright Allen Press, Cambridge, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  24. Meyer PS and Ausubel JH (1999). Carrying capacity: A model with logistically varying limits. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 61(3): 209-214. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00022-0   [Google Scholar]
  25. Ostrom E (1990). Governing the commons: The evolution of institutions for collective action. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511807763   [Google Scholar]
  26. Sterman JD (2012). Sustaining sustainability: Creating a systems science in a fragmented academy and polarized world. In: Weinstein M and Turner R (Eds.), Sustainability science: 21-58. Springer, New York, USA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-3188-6_2   [Google Scholar]
  27. Sterman JD (2014). State of the world: Ecological and economic sustainability. MIT Sloan School of Management (Unpublished), Cambridge, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  28. Sterman JD (2017). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw Hill Education, Chennai, India.   [Google Scholar]
  29. Taagepera R (2014). A world population growth model: Interaction with Earth's carrying capacity and technology in limited space. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 82: 34-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.009   [Google Scholar]
  30. Wackernagel M, Schulz NB, Deumling D, Linares AC, Jenkins M, Kapos V, and Randers J (2002). Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(14): 9266-9271. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.142033699   [Google Scholar] PMid:12089326 PMCid:PMC123129
  31. Warfield JN (1989). Societal systems: Planning policy, and complexity. Intersystem Publications, Salinas, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  32. Webb A (2020). The 11 sources of disruption every company must monitor. MIT Sloan Management Review, 61(3): 65–70. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/13768.003.0018   [Google Scholar]
  33. Yaya S, Yeboah H, and Udenigwe O (2021). Demography, development and demagogues: Is population growth good or bad for economic development? In: Baqir F and Yaya S (Eds.), Beyond free market: Social inclusion and globalization: 109-124. Routledge, London, UK. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003093022-9   [Google Scholar]
  34. Zhang H, Shao Y, Han X, and Chang HL (2022). A road towards ecological development in China: The nexus between green investment, natural resources, green technology innovation, and economic growth. Resources Policy, 77: 102746. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102746   [Google Scholar]
  35. Zhang J (2017). The evolution of China's one-child policy and its effects on family outcomes. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(1): 141-60. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.1.141   [Google Scholar]